Leopold Aschenbrenner's Trades and Holdings in Q3 2025

Breaking down the stocks Leopold Aschenbrenner (Situational Awareness) bought, sold, and held in Q3 2025, including their holdings at the end of the quarter. All data sourced from Situational Awareness' 13F filed on November 14, 2025.

Who are Leopold Aschenbrenner and Situational Awareness?

Founded by Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness is a hedge fund investing in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), with backing from Patrick & John Collison, Daniel Gross, & Nat Friedman. Aschenbrenner previously worked at OpenAI on the Superalignment team led by Ilya Sutskever. In 2024, Leopold became famous for the series of essays he published under the name SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead. The essays predict that AGI will surpass human intelligence by 2027 leading to unprecedented economic and military power shifts.

Situationalawarenesslp.com
Situational-awareness.ai
Leopold Aschenbrenner on X
Q3 '25 13F filed with SEC

Holdings in Q3 2025

Current Investment Strategy

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund concentrated its Q3 2025 portfolio on AI infrastructure and hedges against potential geopolitical instability, establishing new positions in GPU cloud provider CoreWeave, semiconductor leaders Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor, and cryptocurrency-linked plays Galaxy Digital and Cipher Mining while exiting power generator Constellation Energy. The fund's bets on AI compute infrastructure alongside bitcoin miners and gold equities reflect Aschenbrenner's thesis that AGI development by 2027 will trigger unprecedented economic disruption and military competition, positioning for both the AI buildout and potential tail-risk scenarios.

New Investments

CoreWeave CRWV

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $563.2M of CoreWeave in Q3 2025. Insufficient detailed financial data is available in the provided search results to complete a comprehensive analyst report. While CoreWeave recently completed its Nasdaq IPO in March 2025 and reported Q3 2025 results with a notable $55.6 billion revenue backlog as of September 30, 2025, the search results do not contain specific metrics such as quarterly revenue, earnings, year-over-year growth rates, or peer performance comparisons needed to assess performance trends over the last two quarters and provide relative valuation analysis.

• CoreWeave IPO listing on Nasdaq (CRWV) occurred in March 2025, representing early-stage public company status with limited historical data.
• Revenue backlog reached $55.6 billion as of Q3 2025 end date, indicating substantial contracted future revenue.
• Detailed quarterly revenue, gross margin, and earnings data for Q2 and Q3 2025 comparisons not available in search results provided.

Nvidia NVDA

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought put options on Nvidia valued at $298.53M in Q3 2025. NVIDIA's Q2 FY2026 revenue of $46.7 billion demonstrated 56% year-over-year growth, though sequential expansion decelerated to 6% from the prior quarter's 12%. The data center segment sustained momentum with 56% year-over-year growth driven by Blackwell platform strength and AI accelerator demand, while gaming and networking segments achieved record revenues of $4.3 billion and $7.3 billion respectively. Non-GAAP gross margins remained resilient at 72.7% as the company returned $10 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

• Revenue growth decelerated sequentially to 6% in Q2 from 12% in Q1, while year-over-year growth moderated to 56% from 69% in Q1.
• Data center revenue expanded 56% year-over-year with Blackwell platform achieving 17% sequential growth despite $4 billion headwind from H20 inventory normalization.
• Non-GAAP gross margin of 72.7% with $10 billion in capital returns to shareholders, supported by $60 billion share repurchase authorization.

Galaxy Digital GLXY

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $92.55M of Galaxy Digital in Q3 2025. Galaxy Digital delivered exceptional Q3 2025 results, with net income surging to $505 million (a 1,546% sequential increase from Q2) and adjusted EBITDA reaching $629 million, representing 198% growth quarter-over-quarter, driven primarily by record performance in its Digital Assets segment. The company's revenues climbed 231.4% year-over-year to $28.4 billion, significantly outperforming market consensus estimates by 43.12%, while the Digital Assets segment achieved record adjusted gross profit of $318 million, up 345% sequentially. Despite a recent 14% stock price decline following earnings (attributed to broader cryptocurrency market volatility), the stock has gained 63.8% year-to-date, demonstrating strong underlying momentum.

• Net income increased 1,546% sequentially to $505 million in Q3 2025, reversing from a $30.7 million profit in Q2 2025.
• Adjusted EBITDA grew 198% sequentially to $629 million, with Digital Assets EBITDA surging 1,817% to $250 million.
• Revenues jumped 231.4% year-over-year to $28.4 billion, beating consensus estimates by 43.12%.

Taiwan Semiconductor TSM

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought put options on Taiwan Semiconductor valued at $75.41M in Q3 2025. Taiwan Semiconductor delivered record Q3 2025 results driven by exceptional artificial intelligence and high-performance computing demand, with revenue reaching $33.1 billion (+30.3% year-over-year) and earnings per share surging 39% year-over-year. The company's gross margin expanded to 59.5% while advanced technology nodes comprised 74% of wafer revenue, demonstrating strong operational leverage and pricing power in a supply-constrained market. Management's significant upward revision of full-year guidance to the mid-30% revenue growth range reflects sustained artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, with aggressive capital deployment of $40-42 billion positioning the company to capitalize on secular semiconductor demand trends.

• Revenue increased 30.3% year-over-year to $33.1 billion in Q3 2025, with sequential growth of 10.1%.
• EPS rose 39% year-over-year with gross margin expanding 90 basis points sequentially to 59.5%, while operating margin reached 50.6%.
• Stock gained over 55% year-to-date as the company raised 2025 revenue growth guidance to the mid-30% range amid surging artificial intelligence chip demand.

Cipher Mining

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $72.27M of Cipher Mining in Q3 2025. Cipher Mining delivered exceptional Q3 2025 results with revenue reaching $72 million, up 65% sequentially from Q2, while swinging to adjusted earnings of $0.10 per diluted share compared to a $0.01 loss per share in Q3 2024. The strategic AI infrastructure pivot proved transformative, with major wins including a $8.5 billion lease value commitment from AWS and Google partnerships. The company's 3.2 GW development pipeline and 95% ownership stake in the 1-GW Colchis West Texas project position it to capitalize on growing hyperscaler demand for AI data centers.

• Revenue increased 65% quarter-over-quarter to $72 million in Q3 2025.
• Adjusted EPS improved to $0.10 from -$0.01 loss per share year-over-year.
• Secured $8.5 billion in total lease commitments from AWS and Google with 3.2 GW pipeline.

Riot Platforms RIOT

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $68.37M of Riot Platforms in Q3 2025. Riot Platforms delivered exceptional Q3 2025 results with record $180.2M revenue and a dramatic swing to $104.5M net income from a $154.4M loss in Q3 2024, driven by strong Bitcoin mining operations producing 1,406 bitcoin and significant operational efficiency improvements across its mining fleet. The company initiated 112 MW of core-and-shell development at its Corsicana data center campus and acquired an additional 67-acre parcel, strategically pivoting toward large-scale data center operations for AI and high-performance computing while Bitcoin mining serves as a cash flow generator. Despite substantially beating analyst expectations with $0.26 EPS versus estimated -$0.16, the stock declined post-earnings, likely reflecting investor concerns about valuation multiples and competitive pressures in the emerging data center market.

• Revenue surged 112.6% year-over-year to $180.2M in Q3 2025, with Bitcoin mining revenue increasing $93.3M to $160.8M.
• Profitability swung $258.9M from a $154.4M loss to $104.5M net income, with Adjusted EBITDA of $197.2M including $133.1M gain on held Bitcoin.
• Operating efficiency improved dramatically with Bitcoin mining gross margin expanding to 59% from 42%, and hash rate utilization reaching 86% from 66% year-over-year.

Lumentum

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $67.95M of Lumentum in Q3 2025. Lumentum demonstrated strong sequential momentum from Q3 to Q4 fiscal 2025, with non-GAAP operating margins expanding from 10.8% to 15.0% and revenue accelerating to $480.7 million in Q4 while non-GAAP EPS reached $0.88. Full-year fiscal 2025 revenue grew 21% year-over-year to $1.645 billion, driven by robust demand from hyperscale cloud customers for optical components and datacom lasers. This performance indicates the company is gaining significant momentum, with strategic execution in high-growth cloud infrastructure markets positioning it well for continued value creation.

• Non-GAAP EPS accelerated 54.4% sequentially from Q3 to Q4, reaching $0.88 per share.
• Full-year revenue grew 21% year-over-year to $1.645 billion, with non-GAAP gross margins improving 450 basis points to 34.7%.
• Cloud and Networking segment delivered 16% year-over-year growth in Q3 with segment margins reaching 20%, driving 1,030 basis points of operating margin expansion annually.

Micron MU

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought put options on Micron valued at $50.2M in Q3 2025. Micron has delivered exceptional performance driven by surging AI demand, with fiscal 2025 revenue reaching a record $37.4 billion representing ~50% growth year-over-year and gross margins expanding by 17 percentage points. The most recent quarter showed accelerating momentum with EPS of $3.03 significantly exceeding consensus estimates of $2.86 (a 6% beat), driven by all-time-high DRAM revenue, nearly 50% sequential HBM growth, and data center revenue more than doubling year-over-year. Morgan Stanley recently elevated its price target to $325, reflecting strong confidence in the company's technology leadership and dominant position in AI-driven memory demand.

• Revenue increased 49.9% year-over-year to $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, with the most recent quarter generating $9.3 billion (+15% sequentially, +37% year-over-year).
• Latest quarter EPS of $3.03 beat consensus estimates by $0.17 (6% upside), representing significant acceleration from prior quarter performance.
• Operating cash flow surged 85.6% year-over-year to $4.61 billion in Q3, with data center revenue more than doubling year-over-year on AI infrastructure demand.

Solaris Energy SEI

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $45.98M of Solaris Energy in Q3 2025. Solaris Energy delivered a strong Q3 2025 earnings beat with $0.32 EPS versus $0.24 consensus estimate, driving a 12.1% stock price gain following analyst earnings estimate upgrades. The company's distributed power solutions benefited from elevated demand in data center and energy infrastructure sectors, with management announcing an 80 MW turbine capacity acquisition to support future growth. Analysts project 28.6% annual revenue growth through 2028, with revenue expected to reach $949.9 million by 2028.

• Q3 2025 EPS beat consensus by 33% at $0.32 vs $0.24; both revenue and earnings surpassed forecasts by wide margins.
• Stock gained 12.1% post-earnings; fair value at $98.47 provides 95% upside potential from current $50.36 price.
• Acquired 80 MW turbine capacity expansion; return on equity of 22.94% with projected 28.6% annual revenue growth through 2028.

Bloom Energy

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $43.89M of Bloom Energy in Q3 2025. Bloom Energy demonstrated exceptional momentum in Q3 2025 with $519.0 million in revenue, up 57.1% year-over-year and beating Wall Street by ~$100 million—a 29.4% sequential increase from Q2's $401.2 million. Profitability accelerated significantly, with non-GAAP operating income jumping from $28.6 million in Q2 to $46.2 million in Q3, while gross margins expanded to 29.2% from 26.7% sequentially, driven by manufacturing efficiencies and scale. The strategic Brookfield partnership and emerging AI infrastructure opportunity positioned the company as a transformational growth story, prompting a 20% stock surge.

• Q3 revenue of $519.0 million surged 57.1% YoY, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue with a 29.4% sequential increase from Q2.
• Non-GAAP operating income more than doubled from $28.6 million (Q2) to $46.2 million (Q3), while gross margins expanded 290 basis points year-over-year to 30.4%.
• Non-GAAP EPS improved to $0.15 from -$0.01 YoY, with adjusted EBITDA growing 177% YoY to $59.0 million, demonstrating strong operational efficiency.

Tower Semiconductor TSEM

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $34.02M of Tower Semiconductor in Q3 2025. Tower Semiconductor showed strong sequential momentum in Q3 2025 with net profit rising 15% to $54 million and revenues climbing 6% to $396 million, driven by surging AI and data center demand across its core analog foundry technologies. Management's bold $300 million capacity investment and record $440 million Q4 revenue guidance (representing 14% year-over-year growth) underscore confidence in sustained demand acceleration in high-value markets. The 17% stock price appreciation following results reflects investor recognition that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on structural growth tailwinds in semiconductor markets.

• Net profit increased 14.9% sequentially to $54 million in Q3 with EPS rising 14.3% to $0.48 from Q2.
• Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $440 million implies 14% year-over-year and 11% sequential growth acceleration.
• Operating cash flow generated $139 million in Q3 (13% increase from Q2), supporting $300 million capacity investment.

Hut 8 HUT

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $20.85M of Hut 8 in Q3 2025. Hut 8 demonstrated exceptional momentum in Q3 2025 with revenue of $83.5 million (up 91% YoY) and net income of $50.6 million compared to just $0.9 million in the prior year, while achieving Adjusted EBITDA of $109.0 million. The company beat EPS expectations with a loss of -$0.07 versus estimates of -$0.16, though shares declined 4.87% post-earnings, likely reflecting investor concerns about execution risks on its ambitious 1.5+ GW expansion program and ongoing sensitivity to Bitcoin price fluctuations. Despite the near-term market reaction, analyst consensus remains bullish with a "Buy" rating and $47.75 average price target, suggesting conviction in the company's infrastructure positioning and revenue diversification strategy.

• Revenue grew 91% year-over-year to $83.5 million in Q3 2025, significantly outpacing analyst expectations of $64.7 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA surged to $109.0 million from $5.6 million in Q3 2024, while net margin expanded to 115.39%, demonstrating operational leverage.
• EPS loss narrowed to -$0.07, beating consensus by $0.09, with $986 million in incremental market value generated since February 2024 through Bitcoin holdings optimization.

Western Digital

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $18.35M of Western Digital in Q3 2025. Western Digital delivered exceptional results in its latest quarter with $2.82 billion in revenue, representing 27.4% year-over-year growth and a 2.8% beat versus analyst estimates. The company's profitability expanded dramatically, with adjusted EPS of $1.78 exceeding consensus by 12.9%, while operating margin surged to 28.1% from 15.1% year-over-year. This outperformance is driven by robust adoption of high-capacity nearline HDDs for AI workloads at hyperscale data centers, with large customers committing to multi-year purchase orders extending through 2027.

• Revenue increased 27.4% year-over-year to $2.82 billion, beating estimates by 2.8%.
• Adjusted EPS of $1.78 exceeded expectations by 12.9%, with non-GAAP EPS up approximately 31% over the prior two quarters.
• Operating margin expanded 1,300 basis points year-over-year to 28.1%, driven by high-capacity drive ramp and operational efficiency gains.

Coherent COHR

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $16.63M of Coherent in Q3 2025. Coherent has executed a dramatic turnaround from losses to profitability, with 24% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.50B driven by strong AI datacenter demand in the most recent quarter. The company achieved its fourth consecutive earnings beat, posting adjusted EPS of $0.74 versus expectations of $0.61, while substantially expanding gross margins by 490 basis points to 38.5% on a non-GAAP basis. Strong capital allocation—including $400 million in debt repayment and upbeat guidance projecting next quarter EPS up to $1.30—underscores operational discipline, though management's measured tone on forward guidance suggests caution as the AI market matures.

• Non-GAAP EPS surged 73% year-over-year to $1.16, marking the fourth consecutive earnings beat with a 21.3% surprise on the latest Q3 results.
• Gross margin expanded 490 basis points to 38.5% while revenue grew 24% year-over-year, demonstrating strong operational leverage and pricing power.
• Company accelerated debt reduction by $400 million and maintains analyst consensus 'Buy' rating with price targets ranging $135–$150.

BitDeer Technologies BTDR

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $15.89M of BitDeer Technologies in Q3 2025. The company demonstrated exceptional growth in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching $169.7 million, representing 173.6% year-over-year growth and 9.1% sequential expansion driven primarily by a surge in self-mining revenue which increased to $130.9 million from $31.5 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA improved dramatically to $43.0 million from negative $7.9 million in the previous year, signaling strong operational leverage and improved profitability trajectory despite a reported net loss primarily attributable to non-cash derivative valuation adjustments. Strategic catalysts including the mass production of the SEALMINER A3 series and aggressive expansion into AI cloud services position the company for sustained growth, with management expecting substantial revenue contributions from AI services by end of 2026.

• Revenue grew 173.6% year-over-year to $169.7 million with sequential growth of 9.1% in Q3 2025.
• Adjusted EBITDA improved to $43.0 million from negative $7.9 million in the prior year period.
• Self-mining hash rate achieved 41.2 EH/s by October 2025, exceeding company targets.

SanDisk SNDK

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $12.9M of SanDisk in Q3 2025. SanDisk demonstrated a dramatic turnaround from Q3 2025 to Q4 2025, rebounding from a $0.30 per share loss to deliver a $1.22 earnings beat that significantly exceeded analyst expectations, while Q4 revenue reached $2.31 billion with 22.6% year-over-year growth, suggesting the company has successfully navigated prior supply-demand imbalances and is benefiting from strategic pricing and enterprise SSD focus. The strong Q4 performance triggered analyst upgrades and unusually high trading volume, with the company maintaining improved cash reserves of $1.5 billion and signaling confidence in balanced supply-demand recovery by fiscal 2026.

• Q4 2025 EPS of $1.22 beat analyst expectations by approximately 110% versus $0.58 expected.
• Q4 revenue of $2.31 billion grew 22.6% year-over-year and exceeded prior guidance of $1.75-$1.85 billion.
• Company recovered from Q3 non-GAAP loss of $0.30 per share to Q4 profitability amid strategic enterprise SSD allocation increasing to 12% of bit shipments from 8% year-over-year.

Seagate STX

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $11.46M of Seagate in Q3 2025. Seagate has demonstrated exceptional performance over the last 12 months, driven by robust demand for AI and cloud storage infrastructure, with full-year 2025 revenue up 38.86% to $9.10 billion and earnings surging 338.51%. The stock has outperformed significantly, gaining 40% over two months to reach new 52-week highs, supported by strong execution and analyst upgrades. The latest quarter showed continued momentum with revenue growth of 21.3% year-over-year and an EPS beat of $0.21, while non-GAAP gross margins reached a record 40.1%.

• Full-year 2025 revenue increased 38.86% year-over-year to $9.10 billion, with earnings growth of 338.51%.
• Q1 2026 EPS of $2.61 beat consensus of $2.40 by $0.21, with record non-GAAP gross margin of 40.1%.
• Stock gained 40% in two months to reach 52-week highs, with P/E ratio of 36.97 and consensus price target of $281.36.

Added, Trimmed, and Exited

Added

Leopold Aschenbrenner significantly increased his positions in bitcoin mining and energy infrastructure plays, adding 12.2 million shares to Core Scientific (CORZ) (bringing total value from $136.5M to $362M, a +165% return), adding 820,000 shares to IREN (value grew from $93.3M to $338.9M, a +263% return), and making a modest addition to Vistra (VST) (from $247M to $252M).
What it means: These aggressive adds to existing bitcoin mining positions—while simultaneously opening new positions in Cipher Mining, Riot Platforms, and Hut 8—signal extremely high conviction in the thesis that bitcoin mining infrastructure will pivot to serve AI compute demand. The outsized gains on Core Scientific and IREN validate Aschenbrenner's early positioning in this convergence trade between crypto mining capacity and AI data center needs.

Trimmed

Leopold Aschenbrenner reduced his Broadcom (AVGO) put options by 77% (from $328.5M to $75.9M), trimmed EQT by 47% (from $125.1M to $66.3M), and modestly reduced Applied Digital (APLD) share count by 8% (though the position value increased 110% to $139.1M due to price appreciation).
What it means: The dramatic reduction in Broadcom put options suggests either profit-taking on a successful hedge or reduced concern about downside risk in the AI semiconductor supply chain. The EQT trim indicates potential rebalancing away from natural gas exposure in favor of more direct AI infrastructure plays. The modest Applied Digital share reduction despite strong performance appears to be tactical profit-taking while maintaining substantial exposure to this data center operator.

Exited

Leopold Aschenbrenner completely liquidated his $103M position in Constellation Energy (CEG), selling all 319,200 shares held in the previous quarter.
What it means: This exit is particularly notable given Aschenbrenner's new investments in distributed power solutions like Solaris Energy and Bloom Energy, suggesting a strategic pivot from large-scale nuclear utility exposure toward more flexible, modular power generation technologies that can be deployed directly at AI data center sites. This reflects a refined thesis that next-generation AI infrastructure will require on-site power generation rather than reliance on traditional grid-connected utilities.

Disclaimer: All posts are for informational purposes only. They are NOT a recommendation to buy or sell the securities discussed. Please do your own research and due diligence before investing your money.