Leopold Aschenbrenner's Trades and Holdings in Q4 2025

Breaking down the stocks Leopold Aschenbrenner (Situational Awareness) bought, sold, and held in Q4 2025, including their holdings at the end of the quarter. All data sourced from Situational Awareness' 13F filed on February 11, 2026.

Who are Leopold Aschenbrenner and Situational Awareness?

Founded by Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness is a hedge fund investing in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), with backing from Patrick & John Collison, Daniel Gross, & Nat Friedman. Aschenbrenner previously worked at OpenAI on the Superalignment team led by Ilya Sutskever. In 2024, Leopold became famous for the series of essays he published under the name SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead. The essays predict that AGI will surpass human intelligence by 2027 leading to unprecedented economic and military power shifts.

Situationalawarenesslp.com
Situational-awareness.ai
Leopold Aschenbrenner on X
Q4 '25 13F filed with SEC

Holdings in Q4 2025

Current Investment Strategy

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund made a striking pivot in Q4 2025, exiting marquee AI chip names Nvidia and Broadcom while doubling down on the physical backbone of the AI buildout — retaining top positions in power-generation play Bloom Energy, contrarian semiconductor bet Intel, optical-networking firm Lumentum, and Bitcoin miner Cipher Mining. The fund opened new positions in data-center real estate landlord Kilroy Realty, AI infrastructure provider WhiteFiber, distributed-power specialist Power Solutions International, and Bitcoin miners CleanSpark and Bitfarms — companies increasingly repositioning their energy assets and facilities for AI/HPC workloads — signaling Aschenbrenner's conviction that the bottleneck in the race to AGI has shifted from chips to power, cooling, and physical data-center capacity.

New Investments

Kilroy Realty KRC

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $49.62M of Kilroy Realty in Q4 2025. Kilroy Realty delivered mixed financial results in Q4 2025 with FFO per share declining 8.3% year-over-year to $0.97, though full-year FFO declined 8.5% to $4.20 per share amid challenging office market conditions. The quarter demonstrated meaningful operational momentum with 827,000 square feet of leasing—the strongest Q4 performance in six years—and sequential occupancy improvement of 60 basis points to 81.6%, signaling improving West Coast market conditions. Active capital recycling ($755 million of dispositions completed or contracted in 2025-2026) paired with strategic acquisitions including the Nautilus life science campus and disciplined cost management position the company to benefit from anticipated market recovery while maintaining balance sheet flexibility.

• Full-year FFO declined 8.5% to $4.20 per share while net income per share increased 31.1% to $2.32, reflecting one-time gains offsetting operational headwinds.
• Q4 leasing activity reached 827,000 square feet, marking the strongest fourth-quarter performance in six years with positive momentum in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and emerging life science markets.
• Portfolio occupancy improved 60 basis points sequentially to 81.6%, while management completed $755 million in capital recycling to redeploy capital toward higher-return assets and strengthen liquidity to approximately $1.3 billion.

WhiteFiber WYFI

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $27.77M of WhiteFiber in Q4 2025. WhiteFiber has demonstrated accelerating momentum through the last two quarters, with Q3 2025 revenue of $20.2 million (up 64% year-over-year) and Q4 2025 preliminary guidance of $22.7–$25.1 million, reflecting strong sequential growth despite missing earnings expectations. The company's financial position has strengthened considerably, with cash reserves surging to $166.5 million (from $11.7 million at end of 2024) following a completed $210 million convertible notes offering, enabling aggressive capital deployment for high-performance computing infrastructure. Strategic catalysts including the NC1 data center project deployment expected in Q1 2026 and management's target to achieve positive earnings per share by FY2026 have positioned the company for inflection, with analysts maintaining Buy ratings as the market values long-term infrastructure positioning despite near-term profitability headwinds.

• Cloud services revenue grew 48% year-over-year to $18 million in Q3 2025, while gross margin remained strong at 63%.
• Full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $78.3–$80.7 million represents significant growth, with FY2026 earnings forecast to grow 88.3% annually.
• Cash position increased 1,322% from $11.7 million (end of 2024) to $166.5 million (Q3 2025), supporting deployment of the company's 75% loan-to-value capital strategy.

Power Solutions PSIX

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $24.7M of Power Solutions in Q4 2025. Power Solutions International delivered Q3 2025 net sales of $203.8 million, representing 62% year-over-year growth, though profitability declined sequentially with net income falling from $51.2 million in Q2 to $27.6 million in Q3 due to gross margin compression from 28.9% to 23.9%. The margin pressure reflects a strategic shift toward lower-margin data center products and temporary production scaling inefficiencies, resulting in diluted EPS declining to $1.20 from $2.22 quarter-over-quarter despite sustained demand momentum. Management expects approximately 45% full-year 2025 sales growth driven by robust data center and oil & gas demand, with $49 million in cash and continued debt reduction positioning the company to navigate near-term margin headwinds.

• Q3 2025 revenue grew 62% year-over-year to $203.8 million, achieving 6.2% sequential growth from Q2's $191.9 million.
• Diluted EPS declined 46% sequentially to $1.20 in Q3 from $2.22 in Q2, with gross margin compression to 23.9% from 28.9% offsetting revenue gains.
• Total Adjusted EBITDA reached $68 million in Q3 with Q4 2025 guidance of $65-70 million, supporting management's 45% projected full-year sales growth outlook.

CleanSpark CLSK

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $16.6M of CleanSpark in Q4 2025. CleanSpark delivered record FY 2025 revenues of $766.3 million with a 102% year-over-year increase, demonstrating exceptional mining scale-up, though recent quarters reveal diverging operational and financial performance. Q3 2025 showed strong momentum with 13% sequential revenue growth and 2-point margin expansion to 56.5%, but Q4 2025 was significantly impacted by $378.7 million in net losses driven by Bitcoin fair value and collateral adjustments rather than operational deterioration. The company's 9.7x P/E ratio trades at a 67% discount to the industry average of 29.2x, supported by strong operational metrics and 15.6% forecasted annual revenue growth, though market caution reflects Bitcoin price volatility and non-cash earnings impacts.

• Q4 2025 revenue surged 150.52% year-over-year to $223.7 million, with normalized adjusted EBITDA reaching $97 million, a 25% increase over Q3.
• Full-year net profit margin reached 46.3% on $766.3 million revenue, representing a dramatic turnaround from a $149.2 million loss the prior year.
• Valuation trades at 9.7x P/E compared to 29.2x industry average, with consensus forecasting 15.6% annual revenue growth despite near-term earnings volatility from Bitcoin holdings.

Bitfarms BITF

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $16.21M of Bitfarms in Q4 2025. Bitfarms delivered $69 million in Q3 2025 revenue, representing 156% year-over-year growth, driven by scaling mining operations and strategic acquisitions; however, the company posted a significant miss to earnings expectations with -$0.08 EPS versus an estimated -$0.02, revealing persistent profitability challenges despite strong topline expansion. The company's financial performance deteriorated sharply quarter-over-quarter, with Q3 2025 losses expanding from Q2's -$0.05 EPS, and negative net margins of -25.40% and return on equity of -11.48% indicate the company is struggling to convert revenue growth into operating efficiency. While Bitfarms has completed major acquisitions and expanded its energy pipeline to approximately 1.4 GW, near-term value creation remains challenged by operational execution and cost management, with Q4 2025 forecasted at -$0.03 EPS.

• Q3 2025 revenue grew 156% year-over-year to $69 million, significantly outpacing prior year's $127 million quarterly baseline.
• EPS deteriorated 300% in Q3 2025 to -$0.08 versus -$0.02 consensus estimate, extending losses from Q2 2025's -$0.05.
• Net margin of -25.40% and negative ROE of -11.48% indicate the company's inability to convert revenue growth into profitability.

Liberty Energy LBRT

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $10.47M of Liberty Energy in Q4 2025. Liberty Energy delivered a dramatic turnaround in Q4 2025, posting strong beats on both revenue and earnings after a loss quarter in Q3, driven by operational execution and the company's strategic pivot toward data center power solutions. The sequential improvement—with adjusted EPS swinging from -$0.06 to $0.05 and adjusted EBITDA surging 23%—signals meaningful momentum despite full-year 2025 revenue declining 7% year-over-year. A 13% dividend raise to $0.09 per share and strong investor reception with 20%+ after-hours stock gains suggest the market is endorsing Liberty's transformation toward higher-margin, longer-duration power infrastructure earnings.

• Q4 revenue beat consensus by 17% at $1.04B, up 10% sequentially and 10% year-over-year.
• Adjusted EBITDA surged 23% sequentially to $158M in Q4; adjusted EPS swung from -$0.06 loss in Q3 to $0.05 profit.
• Stock surged 20%+ in after-hours trading post-earnings; year-to-date performance up 33.5% as of late January, significantly outperforming S&P 500's 1.9% gain.

Infosys INFY

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought put options on Infosys covering 500K shares in Q4 2025. Infosys experienced a significant deceleration in performance in Q4 FY2025, with net profit declining 11.75% year-over-year to ₹7,033 crore despite revenue growth of 4.2% in constant currency for the full year, signaling margin pressure and weakening profitability. Sequential momentum deteriorated sharply, with revenue contracting 3.5% quarter-over-quarter and EPS falling 13% year-over-year, driven by compensation pressures, seasonal weakness, and lower-than-expected third-party cost reductions. Forward guidance for FY2026 was significantly narrowed to 0-3% constant currency revenue growth, well below historical performance levels, reflecting cautious client spending and macroeconomic headwinds that suggest continued pressure on both top-line growth and margins.

• Net profit declined 11.75% year-over-year in Q4, while revenue growth guidance for FY2026 was narrowed to 0-3% constant currency, down from 4.2% achieved in FY2025.
• Sequential revenue contracted 3.5% quarter-over-quarter and EPS fell 13% year-over-year, with headcount increasing 6,000 while operating margins remained under pressure from compensation costs.
• The company missed analyst expectations on net profit (reported ₹7,033 crore versus ₹7,278 crore polled) and revenue (₹40,925 crore versus ₹42,133 crore polled), suggesting execution challenges.

ProPetro PUMP

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $8.66M of ProPetro in Q4 2025. ProPetro faced challenging near-term conditions in Q2-Q3 2025, with Q2 missing on both EPS (-$0.07) and revenue ($326M) before Q3 delivered $294M in revenue that exceeded analyst expectations despite a 9.8% sequential decline. The company is navigating a soft Permian market while pivoting toward higher-margin opportunities through its Pro Power business line, which anticipates $265-$280M EBITDA by 2030. Strong free cash flow generation of $25M in Q3 2025 and total liquidity of $161M provide capital flexibility to fund growth initiatives despite continued net losses.

• Q2 2025 net loss of $0.07 per share and revenue miss of 2.17% followed by Q3 2025 revenue of $294M that beat expectations.
• Free cash flow conversion remains resilient at $25M in Q3 2025 amid industry softness, with adjusted EBITDA of $35M.
• Pro Power new business line secured initial orders for 140 megawatts of natural gas-powered generation capacity expected by early 2026.

Babcock & Wilcox BW

Leopold Aschenbrenner bought $8.58M of Babcock & Wilcox in Q4 2025. Babcock & Wilcox has demonstrated significant operational turnaround momentum through Q3 2025, with improved profitability metrics and substantially expanded backlog driven by strong demand across thermal projects, baseload generation, and AI/data center applications. The company's Q3 2025 earnings per share of -$0.06 beat analyst estimates by 40% and improved materially versus -$0.16 in Q3 2024, reflecting both operational improvements and the positive impact of its $177 million Diamond Power International divestiture. With a 49% year-over-year backlog increase to $418.1 million, 31% growth in Global Parts & Services revenue, and 89% Adjusted EBITDA expansion in Q2 2025, the company has successfully addressed going concern doubts and positioned itself for sustained margin improvement in 2025 and beyond.

• Q3 2025 EPS of -$0.06 beat consensus estimates by 40%, with $418.1 million backlog representing 49% growth year-over-year.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased 89% in Q2 2025 to $15.1 million versus $8.0 million in Q2 2024, significantly outperforming street expectations by 76%.
• Global Parts & Services revenue surged 31% driven by AI/data center demand and baseload generation usage; successful $177 million Diamond Power divestiture reduced debt concerns.

Added, Trimmed, and Exited

Added

Situational Awareness significantly scaled up its data center and AI infrastructure bets, adding 9.4M shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) call options (a 672% increase in position size), 8.6M shares of Core Scientific (CORZ), 5.3M shares of Applied Digital (APLD), and 939K shares of SanDisk (SNDK) — an 816% increase that transformed a small position into a $250M holding. The fund also added meaningfully to Riot Platforms (RIOT), EQT (EQT), IREN (IREN), BitDeer Technologies (BTDR), Solaris Energy (SEI), Coherent (COHR), Hut 8 (HUT), and Tower Semiconductor (TSEM).
What it means: Leopold Aschenbrenner is doubling down aggressively on the physical infrastructure layer required for AGI — from GPU cloud providers (CoreWeave, Applied Digital) to Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI hosting (Core Scientific, Riot Platforms, Hut 8, IREN, BitDeer Technologies) to the energy (EQT, Solaris Energy) and optical networking (Coherent, Tower Semiconductor) needed to power and connect it all. The massive SanDisk build-out suggests a new conviction in memory/storage demand driven by AI workloads. This is a portfolio repositioning away from semiconductor chip designers and toward the companies physically building and powering the data centers those chips will run in.

Trimmed

Situational Awareness sold down its Intel (INTC) common stock position from 20.2M shares to just 1 share — effectively a full liquidation of the equity — while retaining its 20.2M-share call option position on the same company.
What it means: This is a textbook shift from direct equity exposure to a purely leveraged, options-based bet. By keeping the Intel calls and eliminating the common shares, Aschenbrenner maintains significant upside exposure to a potential Intel turnaround while freeing up hundreds of millions in capital to redeploy elsewhere — likely into the infrastructure additions above. It signals continued conviction in Intel's long-term optionality but reduced willingness to hold dead capital in a stock that has underperformed.

Exited

Situational Awareness fully exited put options on Nvidia (NVDA) ($299M), Broadcom (AVGO) ($76M), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) ($75M), Micron (MU) ($50M), and Gold Miners (GDX) ($196M), as well as long positions in Vistra (VST) ($252M), Galaxy Digital (GLXY) ($93M), Western Digital ($18M), and Seagate (STX) ($11M).
What it means: The most striking change is the removal of the entire suite of semiconductor put options — bearish hedges on Nvidia, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Micron that collectively represented over $500M in notional value last quarter. This suggests Aschenbrenner no longer sees near-term downside risk in the chip giants, possibly because the correction he was hedging against has already played out or because he views the AI demand cycle as more durable than previously anticipated. The exit from Vistra (a power/utility play) and Galaxy Digital (crypto financial services) appears to be a reallocation of capital from adjacent AI beneficiaries into more direct infrastructure plays. The Gold Miners put exit removes a macro hedge, while selling Western Digital and Seagate in favor of building a massive SanDisk position looks like a consolidation of the storage thesis into a single, preferred vehicle.

Disclaimer: All posts are for informational purposes only. They are NOT a recommendation to buy or sell the securities discussed. Please do your own research and due diligence before investing your money.