Breaking down the stocks Norbert Lou (Punch Card Capital) bought, sold, and held in Q3 2025, including their holdings at the end of the quarter. All data sourced from Punch Card Capital's 13F filed on November 14, 2025.
Who are Norbert Lou and Punch Card Capital?
Norbert Lou is the founder and manager of Punch Card Management L.P. (commonly referred to as Punch Card Capital). The fund is known for its highly concentrated portfolio, typically consisting of 3-6 stocks at any given time, with significant cash holdings (averaging 25%) when attractive opportunities are scarce. His investment strategy is a classic value investing approach inspired by Warren Buffett's "punch card" philosophy, where one should invest as if limited to 20 punches in a lifetime. Lou focuses on underfollowed, undervalued companies that can compound intrinsic value at high rates over long periods, with strong qualitative factors like high returns on capital, reinvestment opportunities, economies of scale, and brand power.
Punchcardcapital.com
Norbert Lou on X
Q3 '25 13F filed with SEC
Holdings in Q3 2025
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Change | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-A | Berkshire Hathaway | 33.9% | $109.36M | |
| SGOV | 0-3 Month Treasury | 17.7% | $57M | |
| PDD | PDD Holdings | 17.0% | $54.85M | |
| CROX | Crocs | 16.4% | Added (+19%) | $52.82M |
| PYPL | PayPal | 13.5% | $43.62M | |
| FI | Fiserv | 1.5% | NEW | $4.77M |
| SWBI | Smith & Wesson | 0.0% | Exited | $-1.65M |
Current Investment Strategy
Punch Card Capital maintained its ultra-concentrated value investing approach in Q3 2025, holding just six positions led by core holding Berkshire Hathaway alongside significant cash reserves (18% in treasury securities), while initiating a new position in payments processor Fiserv and exiting firearms manufacturer Smith & Wesson. The fund's holdings in Chinese e-commerce player PDD Holdings and fintech PayPal reflect founder Norbert Lou's continued focus on underfollowed, high-quality businesses with strong returns on capital trading at compelling valuations.
New Investments
Fiserv FI
Norbert Lou bought $4.77M of Fiserv in Q3 2025. Fiserv experienced a dramatic decline in Q3 2025, with stock shares plummeting 47% following the company's release of disappointing earnings and significantly reduced guidance. The payments processor reported adjusted revenue growth of just 1% to $14.9 billion in Q3 and slashed its full-year organic revenue growth outlook from 10% to 3.5%-4%, erasing $32 billion in shareholder value. The deterioration was attributed to the Argentine financial crisis impact and customer pushback on Clover platform fees, prompting leadership changes and a strategic recalibration under new CEO Michael Lyons.
- Q3 2025 adjusted revenue growth declined to 1%, significantly underperforming market expectations.
- EPS guidance slashed from $10.15-$10.30 to $8.50-$8.60, representing a reduction of approximately 15% at the midpoint.
- Share price fell 47% in a single trading day on October 29, 2025, exceeding the 34.22% decline during the 2008 financial crisis.
Added, Trimmed, and Exited
Added
Punch Card Capital added 101,142 shares to its Crocs (CROX) position, increasing the stake from 531,108 to 632,250 shares, even as the stock declined 1.8% during the quarter.
What it means: This dollar-cost averaging into a declining position demonstrates Norbert Lou's high conviction in Crocs, which remains his largest holding at $52.8M. The willingness to buy more shares during weakness aligns with his concentrated value investing approach of backing underfollowed companies with strong brands and reinvestment opportunities. The add suggests Lou sees the pullback as temporary and continues to believe the footwear maker can compound intrinsic value at attractive rates.
Trimmed
No existing positions were trimmed during Q3 2025.
Exited
Punch Card Capital fully liquidated its position in Smith & Wesson (SWBI), selling all 189,933 shares worth $1.65M.
What it means: The exit of Smith & Wesson represents a classic Punch Card move of maintaining extreme portfolio concentration. Given the fund's philosophy of holding only 3-6 stocks and the addition of Fiserv as a new position this quarter, Lou likely saw better risk-adjusted returns elsewhere. With Smith & Wesson representing less than 1% of the portfolio, this exit allows him to redeploy capital into higher-conviction ideas while maintaining the disciplined, concentrated approach that defines his "punch card" investment strategy.
Disclaimer: All posts are for informational purposes only. They are NOT a recommendation to buy or sell the securities discussed. Please do your own research and due diligence before investing your money.
